In short: Government Bonds Yields Curve.
Lets have a look at some examples right now and how that recently changed.
Lets start with a really strong and healthy economy like Germany. AAA rated by all rating agencies.
Yes, there is a little bit of a bump in the 1 year maturities. But given that the interest rate is actually negative (meaning investors are paying the German state to keep their money save, rather than charging interest), and the outlook is slightly improving, this is a clear indication that nobody is betting on this economy to fail anytime soon.
So how about the United States? AA+ rated by Standard & Poor, AAA by Moody’s and Fitch.
6 moths ago the markets were skeptical, but things look overwhelmingly healthy now that trade wars with China look like they came to an end. People still charge the US government interest to lend them money.
France currently AA rated by Standard & Poor and Fitch. AA2 by Moody’s, outlook positive.
like Germany, expected to have a few bumpy months ahead, but doing well. Better than the US in fact with a negative interest rate of -0.5%
Okay, I am cherry picking strong economies. So lets look at another major European player not known for doing so well. Like Spain. Only A rated, but outlook positive.
Now look at that, doing very well indeed!
Now lets compare this with the United Kingdom, still an AA rated country, though the outlook is negative
Interest rates are 1% over what other European nations like Spain or France have to pay, 2% over Germany.
Yield curve is inverted at least in the short term and not looking too good in the 30+ yrs long term either.
See what I mean?
And just because the UK news tries to make the economy of Italy and Greece look doomed, here is how they stack up.
Outlook, certainly more positive and healthy than that of the UK.
ITALY: Far right + Far left TOGETHER in a coalition government? – VisualPolitik EN
UK, Kantar Public poll:
European Union Membership Referendum
Remain: 55% (+1)
Leave: 45% (-1)
+/- vs. 4-8 April
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 25, 2019