Category: brexit

Barclays and HSBC shift some euro clearing from London to Frankfurt

Barclays and HSBC shift some euro clearing from London to Frankfurt:

The scheme, which will share revenues with its biggest users, began in January and has boosted the notional volume of interest rate swaps cleared at its Eurex business to more than €7trillion, compared to just over €1tn a year ago.

The following is a matter of immense public interest and…

Oh, this will be interesting to explain away. While probably meaningless to most lawyers, any software developer will tell you that this is a smoking gun:

Brexit-Szenarien: Ein Fall für die Royal Air Force? – SPIEGEL ONLINE – Wirtschaft

Brexit-Szenarien: Ein Fall für die Royal Air Force? – SPIEGEL ONLINE – Wirtschaft:

Sehr Gute Analyse!

Brexit Impact Scan

Brexit Impact Scan:

Good to know that some countries do a decent job in preparing their businesses for Brexit.

Theresa May thinks a Mad Max-style Brexit armageddon is better than a bad deal

Theresa May thinks a Mad Max-style Brexit armageddon is better than a bad deal:

“I myself will carry you through the gates of Valhalla. You shall ride eternal. Shiny, and chrome!” (Artist’s impression)

The WTO Option and its application to Brexit

The WTO Option and its application to Brexit:

unknownpoliticalobject:

A very good white paper by the Leave Alliance (@LeaveHQ)


General application

[…]
For the UK to trade with  the EU relying on  the WTO Option would be unique for  a  developed  nation,  creating  an  unprecedented situation.There  is  nothing with which a comparison could be made. 
[…]

Conclusions 

[…]
This   has   considerable   implications   for   how   we   address   the   Article   50 negotiations. The adverse effects of dropping out of the EU Treaties without an alternative  agreement  in  place  are  so  serious  that this  is  not  something  any responsible person would want to consider. 

Since The Times published this article over the weekend: Revealed: plans for Doomsday Brexit

Britain would be hit with shortages of medicine, fuel and food within a fortnight if the UK tries to leave the European Union without a deal, according to a Doomsday Brexit scenario drawn up by senior civil servants for David Davis.

Whitehall has begun contingency planning for the port of Dover to collapse “on day one” if Britain crashes out of the EU, leading to critical shortages of supplies.

Last month officials in Davis’s Brexit department and the departments of health and transport drew up scenarios for a no-deal Brexit — a mild one, a severe one and one dubbed “Armageddon”.

A source said: “In the second scenario, not even the worst, the port of Dover will collapse on day one. The supermarkets in Cornwall…

A lot of the Brexiteers that are still left, now came out calling this: 

So it is worth reminding them, that their own Leave Alliance white papers [http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/BrexitMonograph002.pdf] suggested that the “No Deal” WTO option is ”unique for a developed nation, creating an unprecedented situation. There is nothing with which a comparison could be made”, leading to exactly the kind of situations the DExEU leaked paper now predicts. 

So are they calling their own Leave campaign now lying? 

On a side note, there is only one ‘country’ in the whole world that trades with the EU solely under WTO terms: Mauritania.

Government plays down Brexit ‘armageddon’ fear…

Government plays down Brexit ‘armageddon’ fears:

This may sound like an oversimplification but if your government even has ‘Armageddon’ fears to play down over the primary reason it gives for its own existence, then you need to take a step back and think about what you’re doing and how badly you’re fucking it up.

Also a sidenote but if you can hear warnings that our nation will face shortages of food, fuel and medication because of Brexit but still think Brexit is totally working out and is totally worth it, you too need to take a big step back and reassess your priorities in life.

Revealed: plans for Doomsday Brexit

Revealed: plans for Doomsday Brexit:

Apparently people in the UK are shocked to discover that shop shelves will be empty after only a few days. 

This comes to no surprise to me, and it should’t to anybody else. Below some pictures I took of what supermarkets in Scotland looked like last winter, when slightly heavier than usual snow interrupted the just in time supply chain for only 3 days:

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So if you support hard Brexit, food and fuel shortages is a price you must be willing to pay. And the is not fear-mongering, just an inevitable consequence:

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Twitter Bots Helped Trump and Brexit Win, Economic Study Says

Twitter Bots Helped Trump and Brexit Win, Economic Study Says:

National Bureau of Economic Research working paperhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w24631

This paper studies information diffusion in social media and the role of
bots in shaping public opinions. Using Twitter data on the 2016 E.U.
Referendum (“Brexit”) and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, we find
that diffusion of information on Twitter is largely complete within 1-2
hours. Stronger interactions across agents with similar beliefs are
consistent with the “echo chambers” view of social media. Bots have a
tangible effect on the tweeting activity of humans but the degree of
bots’ influence depends on whether bots provide information consistent
with humans’ priors. Overall, our results suggest that the aggressive
use of Twitter bots, coupled with the fragmentation of social media and
the role of sentiment, could contribute to the vote outcomes.