monkeybusiness42: unknownpoliticalobject: Italy, Eumetra poll:How would you vote in an eurzone…

monkeybusiness42:

unknownpoliticalobject:

IIRC, there is no danger of Italy leaving EU. The parties are euro-sceptic, but they have fairly thin foreign policy, and are more about internal change inside the Italy. And this is where the risks lie. Sizable share of Italian financial sector is barely staying afloat, while the new internal policies with higher spending (promised during elections) would increase the debt and raise the risk of economical collapse. The Italian collapse would spread to some extent to other EU countries, and might cause a mild recession in the Eurozone.

TheGlobalist has series of article covering the italian elections form the global perspective. E.g. recent one:

https://www.theglobalist.com/italy-populism-eurozone-ecb-esm-elections/

https://www.theglobalist.com/tag/italy/

You do not have to agree with the opinions expressed on TheGlobalist, but the articles often are filled with facts, so with bit of extra research one could reach their own opinion easily.

The poll was about Eurozone membership (the common currency), not EU membership. Which I know you are aware, but would like to stress out again as I think the UK media deliberately likes to confuse.

Italy exiting the EU is indeed extremely unlikely. It will be hard to find a simple majority backing it, but as this would require a constitutional change, Italy requires a 2/3 majority and support of senate. A process that even if it would have backing of the population, would take several years. Right now there isn’t even a serious debate about it. So this is a pipe dream peddled by the fascists fraction in the English speaking world. 

About the Euro currency. I agree with the Globalist (note, I so far only read the one article you specifically linked) that it would be an Italien crisis, but one that would certainly effect the entire Euro area. As I mentioned in my earlier post: Italy, despite its political chaos, has an amazing economy. The Globalists doubts that it would bring the collapse of the Euro, and I do agree with it to some point, but I wonder if it would bring a Euro separation between the rich countries in the North, and the poorer countries in the South following Italy. 

In fact, that is the same problem Italy is facing internally. If you are poor and unemployed, the idea of having the Lira and simply devaluing it is not entirely mad. (This is why 5SM was so strong in the south.) If you are however from the richer north, with a mortgage on a house and some moderate savings, doing so would be very bad for you. Effectively it is taking the money from the saving accounts of middle and working class people to pay off state debt and liquidate cash to help the even poorer. And this is exactly why the 5 star movement has not pushed the idea any further in the coalition talks.

It is an easy way out of short term debt, but one that is not without a hefty price in the long run. Italiens should know this better than most, as they have done it in the past and caused the hyper inflation of the Lire in the first place. 

Italy needs to sort its debt problem. Europe can and should help it, but that is it, help. They can’t solve it for them.

I am still disappointed how, not the EU per se, but some European nations with the IMF have pressured Greece, Portugal and Ireland in the past. Like Italy, internal reforms were necessary, but some solidarity would have gotten a long way to make these reforms less painful. This has set a very bad presidency.

Europe, as always, needs more solidarity, not more nationalism!